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For Release:	IMMEDIATELY UPON RECEIPT
Contact:	TIM MASSIE (845) 575-3171 DR. CHRISTY HUEBNER CARIDI (845) 575-3225

MARIST QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT: RECESSION FAR FROM OVER

POUGHKEEPSIE - A report on the status of the economy through the second quarter of 2009 by the Marist College Bureau of Economic Research calls into the question the rosy picture being painted by administration officials who suggest that the longest recession since the Great Depression ended in June.

Nationally, while the Gross Domestic Product has been positively impacted by federal stimulus spending and a decreased demand for imported goods, weakness remains in consumer purchasing and investment in residential real estate as families save more and reduce debt. This change in household spending habits does not lead to a job-creating economy. Indicators point to a repeat of jobless recovery experienced after the 2001 recession, but not before unemployment rises well above the 10 percent mark before edging downward in the latter half of 2010.

In the Hudson River Valley, the labor force continues to grow, from 1.2 million workers in December 2007, the final month of economic expansion in the region, to 1.25 million in July 2009, an increase of nearly four percent, nearly double the national average and just under the New York state average. However, job opportunities have not kept up with the increasing demands of a growing labor pool. As of this past July, the gap between the regional labor force and regional employment opportunities was 240,000. On average, residents in the Putnam-Rockland-Westchester metropolitan statistical area (MSA) have experienced a lower level of joblessness compared to Dutchess, Columbia, Greene, Orange, Sullivan, and Ulster counties.

Since December 2007, total non-farm employment in the Hudson River Valley has fallen 2.8 percent, from 981,000 to 953,500 in July 2009. Private employment declined 3.37 percent. Government sector employment fell .03 percent. The largest decline, 19,000 jobs, occurred in the service-providing sector. Goods-producing employment fell 8,600, with the largest contractions occurring in the Putnam-Rockland-Westchester MSA and the Dutchess-Orange MSA, at 2,400 and 2,600 respectively. Overall, employment in the goods-producing industries, which currently represents 11.64 percent of all employment, has fallen 7.2 percent, compared to a 2.2 percent decline in service-providing industries.

There has also been a subtle shift away from goods-producing employment toward service-providing jobs and a general reduction in average weekly wages. Between December 2007 and July 2009, the share of non-farm employment represented by goods-producing industries manufacturing and construction fell 8.47 percent nationwide and 4.51 percent in the Hudson River Valley.

"These declines are directly attributable to the crisis in the residential and commercial real estate sectors and the widespread reduction in demand for consumption and capital goods," said bureau director Dr. Christy Huebner Caridi. "Two bright spots in the employment picture are education and health services, and leisure and hospitality."

Caridi notes the real estate market in the region shows signs of a recovery. While sales of existing homes fell 18.22 percent between the second quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009, they increased from the first and second quarters of this year by 46.72 percent, from 1,661 in the first quarter to 2,437 in the second quarter. This compares to a decline over the same period 10.68 percent statewide.

Average and median selling prices of existing family homes increased from near-term lows in Columbia, Green, Orange, Rockland, and Westchester counties, but prices continued to decline in Dutchess, Putnam, and Sullivan counties. In Ulster, median housing values have risen relative to near-term lows recorded in the first quarter of 2009, but average selling prices continue to decline. In Putnam and Ulster, the rate of decline in average housing values is falling. In Dutchess and Sullivan, the rate of decline accelerated between the first and second quarters of the current year.

Nationwide, average median housing values rose between the first and second quarters. In New York state, median housing values rose. Average housing values continued to decline; however, the rate of decline is falling.

Weakness in the national and regional housing sectors has led to a virtual shutdown in new home construction. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, across the Hudson River Valley, 493 single- family home construction permits were issued during the first seven months of 2009, along with 80 multifamily unit permits. At the current rate of activity, housing construction in the region will have recorded a substantial year-over-year decline. Single-family home construction nationwide and statewide is down year-over-year 35.6 percent and 32.94 percent respectively.

The full report by the Marist Bureau of Economic Research is available online at www.marist.edu/management/bureau.

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For further information, call the Marist College Office of Public Affairs at (845) 575-3174.